Question 92: When do you think the issue over the granting of autocephaly in Ukraine will be resolved, so that either all the Churches accept autocephaly or it is resolved synodically?
Answer: I surprisingly get this question a lot, but I have absolutely no answer to provide, being a simple layman far from any inside information on the subject. Answers can only be found within the Patriarchal Synod of Moscow and/or the Patriarchal Synod of Constantinople, but I don't think they know either. One thing that must be stressed however is that this is nothing new in the Orthodox world, and I do believe it will be resolved in time just like it always has. Because it has happened before, it will likely happen again and again unless there is a synodal decision of all the Churches on the exact rules of granting autocephaly, but seeing that this has been an issue for many centuries it is unlikely a synodal decision will happen any time soon. It has always been very complicated however. Here are five of many examples just from the past few hundred years to prove my point:
Church of Greece: Under Ottoman rule, the Muslims had no control over the Church. With the establishment of the Greek kingdom, however, the government decided to take control of the Church, breaking away from the Patriarch in Constantinople. The government declared the Church to be autocephalous in 1833 in a political decision of the Bavarian Regents acting for King Otto, who was a minor. The decision roiled Greek politics for decades as royal authorities took increasing control. The new status was finally recognized as such by the Patriarchate in 1850, under compromise conditions with the issue of a special "Tomos" decree which brought it back to a normal status. It thus took 17 years for its autocephaly to be recognized by Constantinople.
Church of Romania: Prince Alexandru Ioan Cuza, who had in 1863 carried out a mass confiscation of monastic estates in the face of stiff opposition from the Greek hierarchy in Constantinople, in 1865 pushed through a legislation that proclaimed complete independence of the Church in the Principalities from the Patriarchate. The Ecumenical Patriarchate recognized its status in 1885 only after long negotiations. It thus took 20 years for its autocephaly to be recognized by Constantinople.
Church of Poland: The Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople granted the Church of Poland its autocephaly in the Tomos of 13 November 1924. Given that most of the parishioners were Ukrainians and Belarusians living in the Eastern areas of the newly independent Polish Second Republic, the Patriarch of Constantinople had a canonical basis to grant the Tomos to the Polish Church as a successor of the Kyiv Metropolia, the former territory of Kyivan Rus' which Constantinople continued to see as its canonical territory (despite having agreed to allow Moscow to be its caretaker in 1686). The Russian Orthodox Church at the time did not recognize the Polish autocephaly, as it did not recognize the autocephaly of the Orthodox Church of the Czech Lands and Slovakia. In 1948, after the Soviet Union established political control over Poland, the Russian Orthodox Church recognized the autocephalous status of the Polish Orthodox Church. It thus took 24 years for its autocephaly to be recognized by Moscow.
Church of the Czech Lands and Slovakia: On December 9, 1951, the Patriarch of Moscow granted autocephaly to the Orthodox Church of Czechoslovakia, though this action was not recognized by Constantinople, which regarded the Czechoslovak Church as being autonomous under its authority. The Patriarch of Constantinople later issued a Tomos, or official proclamation, of autocephaly in 1998. It thus took 47 years for its autocephaly to be recognized by Constantinople.
Orthodox Church of America: The OCA was granted autocephaly in 1970 by the Patriarchate of Moscow, but this was rejected by the Ecumenical Patriarchate since it considers America to be under its canonical jurisdiction. This continues to be its status today and has not been resolved.
And let's not forget the autocephalous Churches which did not obtain ecumenical validation and assurance — like the Church of Carthage, the Church of Mediolana (Milan), the Church of Lyons, the Church of First Justiniana, the Church of Ochrid, the Church of Trnovo, the Church of Ipek, and the Church of Iberia, as well as some others in this category — which lost their autocephaly with the passage of time.
What we see in all these examples is that the granting of autocephaly is done under various conditions in various complicated ways, and even when autocephaly is granted by one Patriarchate it may take many decades for other Patriarchates to accept, though it could over time lose its autocephaly altogether. With the Ukraine issue however, the Russian Church seems to have taken the matter very personal, hence its extreme reaction by not recognizing for the time being the Patriarchate of Constantinople. Such hostility may need to follow these hierarchs involved with the issue to the grave in order for a resolution to take place, but let's hope it does not come to this.